From ancient times to the present, people have been looking for ways to predict the future. Every era has various prophecies about the future.
Financial analysts predict the stock market, environmentalists predict population and resources, religious organizations predict the end of the world... It is very important for us to know the future development trend, which determines our current How to make choices and where to go in the future.
Reasonable forecasting can allow us to grasp the rules in the long run, and for entrepreneurs and investors, it also determines future business and investment opportunities. So, what will the future world look like?
Lars Tweed, author of "The Inescapable Business Cycle", in his new book "The Inescapable Trend", expounds issues including population, biotechnology and business management. 5 major trends:
Trend 1: Population aging is accelerating, "silver economy" may become a new outlet
As we all know, all countries in the world are facing the problem of declining fertility rate. Journalist John Ibbitson and sociologist Darrell Brick predict that the global population will peak between 2040 and 2060, when the global population will begin to decline, and once it starts, it will never stop.
A more serious population aging followed. In recent years, the absolute number of China's elderly population has been increasing year by year, and it has become the only country in the world with an elderly population of more than 100 million.
The "Research Report on the Development of China's Elderly Care Institutions" predicts that by 2030 and 2050, the number of disabled elderly in China will reach 62 million and 98 million, respectively. The increase in the elderly population and the disabled population will stimulate the rapid growth of professional elderly care services. The ultra-low birth rate has led to a further increase in the elderly dependency ratio. As the development trend of the future pension model, institutional pensions will usher in new development opportunities.
Trend 2: New species continue to be born, extinct species may reappear
In thousands of years For a long time, humans have been manipulating the genes of animals and plants on a large scale, such as turning gray wolves into dogs, cultivating weeds into corn, hybridizing three kinds of weeds to produce wheat, and so on.
Nowadays, human beings no longer rely on this long-term genetic modification. We can directly intervene in genes through technology. In the future, we can use genetic technology to modify plants, such as the water and fertilizer needed for plant growth And less pesticides, more stress resistance, even less natural toxins in some plants, or some species with distinct characteristics so that they won't be confused with their dangerous relatives... we will probably get into what we'll see every year The stage in which new species are born.
An even bolder idea is to bring back long-extinct species. Nowadays, people can use "selective breeding" and "cloning technology" to try to restore extinct species. In the future, people may use genetic engineeringThe method of technology modifies the genome of organisms, and even rebuilds Jurassic Park, which is essentially creating Noah's Ark in another sense.
In addition to being able to create new species and recreate extinct species through genetic engineering technology, people can also use this technology to purposely make certain species extinct in the future.
The World Health Organization stated that mosquitoes are one of the deadliest species in the world. There are about 3,000 species of mosquitoes in the world, of which 30 species can transmit malaria, and several can cause dengue fever and Zika Viral diseases, etc., can bring great benefits by eliminating only one type of mosquito, Anedes gambiae.
In the future, scientists can use "gene drive" technology to put artificial infertility genes into Anopheles gambiae. Mosquitoes will experience extinction within 11 generations. After that, Malaria may be history.
Trend 3: Human genes can be reconstructed, and diseases will have more treatments
Previously Deciphering the human genome is a long and complicated job, but today, it can be done in just a few hours and for less than $200, and the speed of deciphering the human DNA sequence doubles on average every 10 months.
Lars Tweed predicts that in the future, polygenic scores will help preventive treatment of diseases, and humans will be able to create the desired DNA in the future. Compared with the transformation of other organisms, humans The transformation of the system may move forward more quickly.
From ancient times to the present, from physical transformation (tattoos, foot binding, piercing, surgery) to cell transformation (test-tube babies), human beings are always eager to change their bodies, and there may be Altering human genes, such as baby design for embryos: screening out serious diseases, increasing good characteristics, or biohacking technology for adults, such as changing genes such as hair color and hair characteristics.
In the future, the development of biotechnology will enable more treatments for diseases, such as stem cell therapy.
Stem cells can be understood as cells that can differentiate into various types of cells. In the future, we could use embryonic stem cells to grow tissue to replace lost or damaged tissue in patients. For example, for diabetic patients, it is possible to abandon the current traditional therapy of injecting insulin and create pancreatic islet B cells that can secrete insulin for patients.
Excitingly, artificial tissues are now being used in drug testing and beauty product testing and development. Therefore, the application of stem cell therapy to the treatment of patients is also just around the corner.
Similarly, cancer has always been a difficult medical topic for people to overcome. Compared with traditional chemotherapy, immunotherapy may be more preferred in the future. Cancer cells that have spread.
Now, experts have also discovered a protein called "p53", which can effectively prevent cancer. this collarThe domain also needs people's long-term research to give answers in the future.
Trend 4: Evolutionary organizations will become the mainstream, highly variable and highly decentralized economy
Frédéric Leloux, an economist and former McKinsey consultant, envisions that evolutionary organizations will be the mainstay of future organizational forms.
In an evolutionary society, employees work in small teams that help each other but mostly make their own decisions.
Compared with existing organizational forms, this organizational form is more adept at tolerant of mistakes, and teams can improve from mistakes. They do not make detailed long-term plans, are highly variable and highly Scattered, employees drive forward with work enthusiasm and ability, and the evolutionary organization is extremely agile, creative, able to follow the heart and grow by itself.
In the future, there will be more and more evolutionary organizations, especially for entrepreneurs. Their work often only needs to list a few points and quickly adjust the business model according to market feedback. Enterprises can not only lead employees to grow, but also help people find the direction of life.
In short, with the continuous improvement of the global innovation speed, the management style of mainstream enterprises will move towards an evolutionary organization, which will be characterized by the institutionalization of conscious innovation.
Trend 5: Per capita wealth has increased significantly and the world has become more peaceful
With the advancement of artificial intelligence Progress, the global economy will develop significantly in the future, and the per capita wealth will also increase significantly. In the future, the global poor population will be greatly reduced, the middle class will replace the large-scale distribution of poor people, and the world will become richer and more peaceful.
Economist and development researcher Paul Collier also found that a doubling of income levels would halve the statistical risk of a civil war. In the future, as the global economy develops, Society will become more and more stable.
On the one hand, studies have found that when socially unemployed young men account for 30% of a country's population, the risk of war will rise to 90%. The rapid economic development in the future will provide a large number of jobs. There will be fewer and fewer unemployed young men.
On the other hand, when the uncertainty and pressure faced are reduced, people's belief in religion or superstition will also decrease, which leads to a sharp drop in the chances of people falling into the trap of conspiracy theories.
Therefore, increased economic growth rates and higher levels of economic prosperity will lead to more rationality, peace and tolerance, which in turn will promote higher levels of economic development, and the world will Continue to develop in the direction of peace.
Overall, the future is extremely bright.
Lars Tweed's view is clear: the future must be better than the present, just as the present is better than the pastSame.
This is the 50th super trend summarized by Russ Tweed in "The Inescapable Trend", and it is also the last and most critical super trend. We should see the changes of the times clearly, seize our own opportunities, and set up solutions to problems that may arise in the future. For the rest, we only need to wait patiently for the future to come.
The Inescapable Trend
[Denmark] Lars Tvede
< p>CITIC Publishing Group
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